ADP vs Production for 2026

Where the draft room and last season's box score disagree, and which way each disagreement runs.

Bhayshul Tuten is the biggest disagreement in 2026 full-PPR drafts: the room takes him 36 spots earlier than his 5.9 points per game ranks him, around pick 53.8 in round 5, across 7,848 real drafts.

What a Gap Means, and What It Does Not

A gap is a disagreement, not a verdict. Average draft position is forward looking: it already accounts for a torn ACL, a new offensive coordinator, a backfield that just signed someone, and rookies with no NFL snaps to rank at all. Production is simply what happened last season.

So a player taken far earlier than his production is being drafted on expectation, and one taken far later is being drafted on doubt. Often the room is right and last season is the misleading number. The useful question is not who is wrong, it is what the room is pricing that the box score cannot see.

Drafted on expectation

The room takes these players earlier than last season’s production ranks them. Rookies and changed situations dominate this list by design: there is no box score to rank a player who has not played yet.

Player	Drafted	Produced	Gap
Bhayshul TutenRB JAX	Rd 5, RB22	5.9 PPG, RB58	36
Luther Burden IIIWR CHI	Rd 5, WR26	8.6 PPG, WR60	34
Justin JeffersonWR MIN	Rd 1, WR6	11.9 PPG, WR33	27
DJ MooreWR CHI	Rd 4, WR24	10.2 PPG, WR46	22
Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA	Rd 2, RB11	11.3 PPG, RB29	18
Ladd McConkeyWR LAC	Rd 4, WR20	11.3 PPG, WR38	18
Emeka EgbukaWR TB	Rd 3, WR18	11.6 PPG, WR35	17
DeVonta SmithWR PHI	Rd 3, WR16	11.9 PPG, WR32	16
Mark AndrewsTE BAL	Rd 11, TE12	7.7 PPG, TE28	16
Colston LovelandTE CHI	Rd 5, TE3	10.3 PPG, TE18	15
Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB	Rd 7, WR38	9.2 PPG, WR53	15
Mike EvansWR TB	Rd 5, WR28	10.6 PPG, WR42	14

Drafted on doubt

The room waits longer on these players than last season’s production ranks them. A lost starting job, a crowded depth chart, or a season the room reads as an outlier all land here.

Player	Drafted	Produced	Gap
Troy FranklinWR DEN	Rd 16, WR88	10.4 PPG, WR43	45
Jauan JenningsWR SF	Rd 13, WR62	11.5 PPG, WR36	26
Travis HunterWR JAX	Rd 14, WR80	9.1 PPG, WR54	26
Quentin JohnstonWR LAC	Rd 8, WR45	13.2 PPG, WR20	25
Ryan FlournoyWR DAL	Rd 15, WR81	8.7 PPG, WR56	25
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG	Rd 8, WR40	13.6 PPG, WR17	23
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG	Rd 13, RB54	10.7 PPG, RB31	23
Keon ColemanWR BUF	Rd 15, WR82	8.6 PPG, WR59	23
Keenan AllenWR LAC	Rd 12, WR59	10.8 PPG, WR40	19
Stefon DiggsWR NE	Rd 8, WR44	12.4 PPG, WR26	18
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS	Rd 10, WR51	11.8 PPG, WR34	17
Kayshon BoutteWR NE	Rd 14, WR72	8.9 PPG, WR55	17

How to read the columns

Drafted is where the player goes on average in a 12-team league, as a round and a rank within his position.
Produced is his points per game last season in full PPR, and his rank within his position on that number.
Gap is the distance between those two positional ranks. Bigger means the two views disagree more.

Want the same comparison for half PPR or standard, or for a player who is not on these lists? Every player’s draft position sits on his player page, and you can pull the full board in any format through the DraftCall MCP server.

Position rankings·Positional scarcity·Strength of schedule·Compare two players

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