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Aidan O'Connell vs Tua TagovailoaWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Aidan O'Connell is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 12.8 PPG to Tua Tagovailoa's 11.5 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Aidan O'Connell is the better fantasy play this season.

Statistically, Aidan O'Connell and Tua Tagovailoa are interchangeable on a season-long basis. The 1.3-PPG gap is one broken play per game. For weekly start/sit calls, check opponent defense and recent form before defaulting to the name.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBLas Vegas Raiders#99PPG LEADER
Aidan O'Connell
PPG
12.8
Games
13
Pass Yds
2,650
Pass TDs
16
Bye
Week 10
QBMiami Dolphins#35
Tua Tagovailoa
PPG
11.5
Games
14
Pass Yds
2,660
Pass TDs
20
Bye
Week 6

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Aidan O'Connell
Tua Tagovailoa

Head to Head

12.8 PPG11.5 PPG
13 GP14 GP
Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Tiers

Aidan O'Connell: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Tua Tagovailoa: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #35 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Aidan O'Connell is producing at 58% of elite pace and Tua Tagovailoa at 52%. That ranking gap means Tua Tagovailoa carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Aidan O'Connell vs Tua Tagovailoa: The Full Breakdown

The gap between Aidan O'Connell and Tua Tagovailoa is smaller than most fantasy managers think. Separated by just 1.3 PPG in 2025, this is one of those quarterback decisions that comes down to context, not name recognition. Aidan O'Connell averaged 12.8 PPG with the Las Vegas Raiders across 13 games, and Tua Tagovailoa posted 11.5 with the Miami Dolphins in 14.

When two quarterbacks are separated by less than two points per game, the decision shifts to weekly context. Who has the softer defense? Who is trending up over the last month? Which team is projected for more total points? Those are the tiebreakers that actually matter.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Aidan O'Connell threw for 2650 yards and 16 touchdowns, while Tua Tagovailoa posted 2660 yards and 20 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Aidan O'Connell has his bye in Week 10, and Tua Tagovailoa rests in Week 6. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Aidan O'Connell (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Tua Tagovailoa (age 28) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

  • Aidan O'Connell outscored Tua Tagovailoa by a projected 22 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • Tua Tagovailoa played 14 games in 2025 compared to Aidan O'Connell's 13. That durability gap means Tua Tagovailoa contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • Tua Tagovailoa scored 20 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.4 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Aidan O'Connell vs Tua Tagovailoa: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
StatAidan O'ConnellTua Tagovailoa
PPG (Half-PPR)12.811.5
Games Played1314
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)166161
Passing Yards2,6502,660
Passing TDs1620
Pass Yds/Game203.8190.0
Rushing Yards6843
Rushing TDs00
Total TDs1620
TDs/Game1.21.4
Age-28
Experience-5 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 10Week 6

Summary

The 2025 numbers favor Aidan O'Connell at 12.8 PPG, 1.3 points per game above Tua Tagovailoa's 11.5. But season stats only tell part of the story. DraftCall's AI factors in weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status to give you a verdict that updates with the latest data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Aidan O'Connell or Tua Tagovailoa in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, Aidan O'Connell has the edge at 12.8 PPG compared to Tua Tagovailoa's 11.5 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Aidan O'Connell and Tua Tagovailoa average in 2025?

Aidan O'Connell averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 13 games in 2025. Tua Tagovailoa averaged 11.5 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 1.3 points per game.

When are Aidan O'Connell and Tua Tagovailoa's bye weeks in 2026?

Aidan O'Connell (LV) has a bye in Week 10, and Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) has a bye in Week 6. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Aidan O'Connell or Tua Tagovailoa a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?

Aidan O'Connell outscored Tua Tagovailoa by 1.3 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.