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Updated September 8, 2026 from live stats

C.J. Stroud or Patrick MahomesWho should you draft or start in 2026 fantasy football?

DraftCall Analytics

Start Patrick Mahomes over C.J. Stroud in 2026.

Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG in 2025 to C.J. Stroud's 14.9, a 5.5 point per game edge. Both play quarterbacks, so that per-game gap is the cleanest tiebreaker for a 2026 start or sit. Patrick Mahomes is Tier 1 at the position, C.J. Stroud is Tier 5.

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 20.4 PPG and 3,999 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. C.J. Stroud (14.9 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Patrick Mahomes as the starter and C.J. Stroud as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBHouston Texans#23

C.J. Stroud

PPG

14.9

Games

Pass Yds

3,041

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

209

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 8

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

The Edge Chart

C.J. Stroud

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

14.9 PPG20.4 PPG

14 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Tiers

C.J. Stroud: Tier 5 (Flex/Starter) QB (ranked #23 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, C.J. Stroud is producing at 68% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

C.J. Stroud vs Patrick Mahomes: The Full Breakdown

C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes are both viable fantasy quarterbacks heading into 2026, but their 2025 production tells two different stories. C.J. Stroud averaged 14.9 PPG across 14 games with the Houston Texans, while Patrick Mahomes posted 20.4 PPG in 14 appearances for the Kansas City Chiefs.

A 5.5-PPG gap gives Patrick Mahomes the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like C.J. Stroud (3041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: C.J. Stroud sits Week 8 while Patrick Mahomes is off Week 5. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Patrick Mahomes at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. C.J. Stroud is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: C.J. Stroud (age 24) is in the early stages of his career with 5+ years of starter-caliber upside. His dynasty value is rising. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored C.J. Stroud by a projected 93 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Patrick Mahomes scored 27 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.9 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.
•C.J. Stroud is 6 years younger than Patrick Mahomes (24 vs 30), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

C.J. Stroud vs Patrick Mahomes: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	C.J. Stroud	Patrick Mahomes
PPG (Half-PPR)	14.9	20.4
Games Played	14	14
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	209	286
Passing Yards	3,041	3,587
Passing TDs	19	22
Pass Yds/Game	217.2	256.2
Rushing Yards	209	422
Rushing TDs	1	5
Total TDs	20	27
TDs/Game	1.4	1.9
Age	24	30
Experience	2 yrs	8 yrs
Bye Week	Week 8	Week 5

Summary

Patrick Mahomes outscored C.J. Stroud by 5.5 PPG in 2025 (20.4 to 14.9). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to C.J. Stroud's 14.9 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?▾

Patrick Mahomes is the earlier pick. He averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game in 2025 to C.J. Stroud's 14.9, a 5.5 point per game edge over a full season. Positional rank, fantasy tier, and bye week are broken down below.

How many fantasy points did C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

C.J. Stroud averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 14 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 5.5 points per game.

When are C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

C.J. Stroud (HOU) has a bye in Week 8, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 5. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored C.J. Stroud by 5.5 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.