Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Cole Kmet vs Jake FergusonWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Jake Ferguson is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 8.7 PPG to Cole Kmet's 4.0 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Jake Ferguson is the better fantasy play this season.

Jake Ferguson has the edge, but it is not a runaway. The 4.7-PPG advantage is real (8.7 to 4.0), and Jake Ferguson's 8 touchdowns show scoring upside. Cole Kmet is the buy-low candidate if recent production has dipped, because the talent gap is smaller than the numbers suggest.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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TEChicago Bears#99

Cole Kmet

PPG

4.0

Games

Rec

Rec Yds

347

Rec TDs

Targets

Bye

Week 7

TEDallas Cowboys#14PPG LEADER

Jake Ferguson

PPG

8.7

Games

Rec

Rec Yds

600

Rec TDs

Targets

102

Bye

Week 14

The Edge Chart

Cole Kmet

Jake Ferguson

Head to Head

4.0 PPG8.7 PPG

16 GP17 GP

Bye: Week 7Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Tiers

Cole Kmet: Tier 5 (Deep League) TE (ranked #99 at the position). Jake Ferguson: Tier 3 (Flex/Starter) TE (ranked #14 at the position). Among the top 30 tight ends this season, Cole Kmet is producing at 18% of elite pace and Jake Ferguson at 40%. That ranking gap means Jake Ferguson carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Cole Kmet vs Jake Ferguson: The Full Breakdown

Cole Kmet and Jake Ferguson are both viable fantasy tight ends heading into 2026, but their 2025 production tells two different stories. Cole Kmet averaged 4.0 PPG across 16 games with the Chicago Bears, while Jake Ferguson posted 8.7 PPG in 17 appearances for the Dallas Cowboys.

A 4.7-PPG gap gives Jake Ferguson the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Jake Ferguson is the volume tight end in this matchup with 82 receptions for 600 yards, while Cole Kmet profiles as a more touchdown-dependent spike play (2 scores on 30 catches). In weeks where Cole Kmet finds the end zone he out-scores Jake Ferguson, but the floor gap is real.

One scheduling note: Cole Kmet is off Week 7 and Jake Ferguson Week 14. If these two are on your roster, you will need a fill-in tight end for both weeks. DraftCall flags bye conflicts so you can plan ahead rather than panic on waivers.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Jake Ferguson at a discount because your league-mates undervalue tight end production, do it. Cole Kmet is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Cole Kmet (age 27) is in the middle of his productive window. Stable dynasty value. Jake Ferguson (age 27) is in the middle of his productive window. Stable dynasty value.

Did You Know?

•Jake Ferguson outscored Cole Kmet by a projected 80 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Jake Ferguson played 17 games in 2025 compared to Cole Kmet's 16. That durability gap means Jake Ferguson contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Jake Ferguson scored 8 total touchdowns in 2025 (0.5 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at tight end.
•Jake Ferguson saw 102 targets in 2025. Target volume is the single strongest predictor of weekly PPR production at the tight end position.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Cole Kmet vs Jake Ferguson: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Cole Kmet	Jake Ferguson
PPG (Half-PPR)	4.0	8.7
Games Played	16	17
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	64	148
Receptions	30	82
Rec/Game	1.9	4.8
Receiving Yards	347	600
Rec Yds/Game	21.7	35.3
Receiving TDs	2	8
Targets	48	102
Target Share/Game	3.0	6.0
Age	27	27
Experience	6 yrs	3 yrs
Bye Week	Week 7	Week 14

Summary

Jake Ferguson outscored Cole Kmet by 4.7 PPG in 2025 (8.7 to 4.0). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Cole Kmet or Jake Ferguson in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Jake Ferguson has the edge at 8.7 PPG compared to Cole Kmet's 4.0 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Cole Kmet and Jake Ferguson average in 2025?▾

Cole Kmet averaged 4.0 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 16 games in 2025. Jake Ferguson averaged 8.7 PPG over 17 games. That is a difference of 4.7 points per game.

When are Cole Kmet and Jake Ferguson's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Cole Kmet (CHI) has a bye in Week 7, and Jake Ferguson (DAL) has a bye in Week 14. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Cole Kmet or Jake Ferguson a better fantasy tight end in 2026?▾

Jake Ferguson outscored Cole Kmet by 4.7 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.