DraftCall
DraftCallFantasy Football

Head to Head

Updated from live stats

Dalton Kincaid vs Jake FergusonWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Dalton Kincaid is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 8.9 PPG to Jake Ferguson's 8.7 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Dalton Kincaid is the better fantasy play this season.

Statistically, Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson are interchangeable on a season-long basis. The 0.2-PPG gap is one broken play per game. For weekly start/sit calls, check opponent defense and recent form before defaulting to the name.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

Want this verdict updated live on Sunday?

Track Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson in the DraftCall app and get their updates the moment they change.

Get the App
TEBuffalo Bills#11PPG LEADER
Dalton Kincaid
PPG
8.9
Games
12
Rec
39
Rec Yds
571
Rec TDs
5
Targets
49
Bye
Week 7
TEDallas Cowboys#14
Jake Ferguson
PPG
8.7
Games
17
Rec
82
Rec Yds
600
Rec TDs
8
Targets
102
Bye
Week 14

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Dalton Kincaid
Jake Ferguson

Head to Head

8.9 PPG8.7 PPG
12 GP17 GP
Bye: Week 7Bye: Week 14

Fantasy Tiers

Dalton Kincaid: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) TE (ranked #11 at the position). Jake Ferguson: Tier 3 (Flex/Starter) TE (ranked #14 at the position). Among the top 30 tight ends this season, Dalton Kincaid is producing at 40% of elite pace and Jake Ferguson at 40%. These two are close enough in the rankings that weekly matchup should dictate your start.

Dalton Kincaid vs Jake Ferguson: The Full Breakdown

The gap between Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson is smaller than most fantasy managers think. Separated by just 0.2 PPG in 2025, this is one of those tight end decisions that comes down to context, not name recognition. Dalton Kincaid averaged 8.9 PPG with the Buffalo Bills across 12 games, and Jake Ferguson posted 8.7 with the Dallas Cowboys in 17.

When two tight ends are separated by less than two points per game, the decision shifts to weekly context. Who has the softer defense? Who is trending up over the last month? Which team is projected for more total points? Those are the tiebreakers that actually matter.

Jake Ferguson is the volume tight end in this matchup with 82 receptions for 600 yards, while Dalton Kincaid profiles as a more touchdown-dependent spike play (5 scores on 39 catches). In weeks where Dalton Kincaid finds the end zone he out-scores Jake Ferguson, but the floor gap is real.

Dalton Kincaid has his bye in Week 7, and Jake Ferguson rests in Week 14. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at tight end for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Dalton Kincaid (age 26) is in the middle of his productive window. Stable dynasty value. Jake Ferguson (age 27) is in the middle of his productive window. Stable dynasty value.

Did You Know?

  • Dalton Kincaid outscored Jake Ferguson by a projected 3 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • Jake Ferguson played 17 games in 2025 compared to Dalton Kincaid's 12. That durability gap means Jake Ferguson contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • Jake Ferguson scored 8 total touchdowns in 2025 (0.5 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at tight end.
  • Jake Ferguson saw 102 targets in 2025. Target volume is the single strongest predictor of weekly PPR production at the tight end position.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Dalton Kincaid vs Jake Ferguson: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
StatDalton KincaidJake Ferguson
PPG (Half-PPR)8.98.7
Games Played1217
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)107148
Receptions3982
Rec/Game3.34.8
Receiving Yards571600
Rec Yds/Game47.635.3
Receiving TDs58
Targets49102
Target Share/Game4.16.0
Age2627
Experience2 yrs3 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 7Week 14

Summary

8.9 PPG for Dalton Kincaid versus 8.7 for Jake Ferguson in 2025. The baseline favors Dalton Kincaid, though the right weekly matchup can flip the script. For a full breakdown that weighs matchup quality, form, and injury reports, try DraftCall's AI comparison engine.

DraftCall app on iPhone

Website vs App

Get the AI verdict on Dalton Kincaid vs Jake Ferguson

DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality, recent trends, injury impact, and game script to give you a clear start/sit recommendation.

See everything in the app →

Launch List

Get the live verdict on Dalton Kincaid vs Jake Ferguson

The DraftCall app delivers live game-day verdicts on every matchup. Join the launch list and we will email you the day it goes live for the 2026 NFL season, with your direct iOS and Android install links.

We will never share your email. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Dalton Kincaid or Jake Ferguson in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, Dalton Kincaid has the edge at 8.9 PPG compared to Jake Ferguson's 8.7 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson average in 2025?

Dalton Kincaid averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 12 games in 2025. Jake Ferguson averaged 8.7 PPG over 17 games. That is a difference of 0.2 points per game.

When are Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson's bye weeks in 2026?

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) has a bye in Week 7, and Jake Ferguson (DAL) has a bye in Week 14. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Dalton Kincaid or Jake Ferguson a better fantasy tight end in 2026?

Dalton Kincaid outscored Jake Ferguson by 0.2 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.