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Head to Head

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Davis Mills vs Justin HerbertWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 17.9 PPG to Davis Mills's 11.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy play this season.

The gap here is significant. Justin Herbert outscored Davis Mills by 6.5 PPG in 2025 with 28 total touchdowns. If both are on your board, Justin Herbert is the clear pick. Davis Mills profiles as a matchup-dependent quarterback who can spike but lacks the consistent floor.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBHouston Texans#36
Davis Mills
PPG
11.4
Games
6
Pass Yds
915
Pass TDs
5
Rush TDs
1
Bye
Week 8
QBLos Angeles Chargers#10PPG LEADER
Justin Herbert
PPG
17.9
Games
16
Pass Yds
3,727
Pass TDs
26
Rush Yds
498
Rush TDs
2
Bye
Week 7

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Davis Mills
Justin Herbert

Head to Head

11.4 PPG17.9 PPG
6 GP16 GP
Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Tiers

Davis Mills: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #36 at the position). Justin Herbert: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #10 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Davis Mills is producing at 52% of elite pace and Justin Herbert at 81%. That ranking gap means Justin Herbert carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Davis Mills vs Justin Herbert: The Full Breakdown

Justin Herbert and Davis Mills are at different tiers heading into 2026. The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback averaged 17.9 PPG in 2025, a full 6.5 points per game ahead of Davis Mills's 11.4 with the Houston Texans. That kind of gap doesn't close on matchup alone.

The per-game difference of 6.5 points favors Justin Herbert, though savvy managers know that gap can shrink or widen depending on the weekly slate. Defensive matchup, recent scoring trends, and health status all shift the calculus from one quarterback to the other.

Justin Herbert offers meaningful rushing upside with 498 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Davis Mills (915 passing yards, 5 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Davis Mills has his bye in Week 8, and Justin Herbert rests in Week 7. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Justin Herbert is a buy in trades where the other manager is chasing upside at a different position. Davis Mills is a hold unless you can flip him for a positional upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Dynasty outlook: Davis Mills (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Justin Herbert (age 28) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

  • Justin Herbert outscored Davis Mills by a projected 110 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • Justin Herbert played 16 games in 2025 compared to Davis Mills's 6. That durability gap means Justin Herbert contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • Justin Herbert scored 28 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
  • Justin Herbert added 498 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Davis Mills vs Justin Herbert: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
StatDavis MillsJustin Herbert
PPG (Half-PPR)11.417.9
Games Played616
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)68286
Passing Yards9153,727
Passing TDs526
Pass Yds/Game152.5232.9
Rushing Yards60498
Rushing TDs12
Total TDs628
TDs/Game1.01.8
Age2728
Experience4 yrs5 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 8Week 7

Summary

17.9 PPG for Justin Herbert versus 11.4 for Davis Mills in 2025. The baseline favors Justin Herbert, though the right weekly matchup can flip the script. For a full breakdown that weighs matchup quality, form, and injury reports, try DraftCall's AI comparison engine.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Davis Mills or Justin Herbert in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, Justin Herbert has the edge at 17.9 PPG compared to Davis Mills's 11.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Davis Mills and Justin Herbert average in 2025?

Davis Mills averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 6 games in 2025. Justin Herbert averaged 17.9 PPG over 16 games. That is a difference of 6.5 points per game.

When are Davis Mills and Justin Herbert's bye weeks in 2026?

Davis Mills (HOU) has a bye in Week 8, and Justin Herbert (LAC) has a bye in Week 7. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Davis Mills or Justin Herbert a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?

Justin Herbert outscored Davis Mills by 6.5 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.