Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Derek Carr vs Justin HerbertWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 17.9 PPG to Derek Carr's 15.8 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy play this season.

Justin Herbert has the edge, but it is not a runaway. The 2.1-PPG advantage is real (17.9 to 15.8), and Justin Herbert's 28 touchdowns show scoring upside. Derek Carr is the buy-low candidate if recent production has dipped, because the talent gap is smaller than the numbers suggest.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBNew Orleans Saints#99

Derek Carr

PPG

15.8

Games

Pass Yds

3,428

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

105

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 12

QBLos Angeles Chargers#10PPG LEADER

Justin Herbert

PPG

17.9

Games

Pass Yds

3,727

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

498

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 7

The Edge Chart

Derek Carr

Justin Herbert

Head to Head

15.8 PPG17.9 PPG

15 GP16 GP

Bye: Week 12Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Tiers

Derek Carr: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Justin Herbert: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #10 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Derek Carr is producing at 72% of elite pace and Justin Herbert at 81%. That ranking gap means Justin Herbert carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Derek Carr vs Justin Herbert: The Full Breakdown

Two quarterbacks who will land on plenty of the same rosters in 2026. Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints) finished the 2025 season averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game in 15 games. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) came in at 17.9 PPG over 16 games. The gap is real but not insurmountable with the right matchup.

Justin Herbert carries a 2.1-point PPG advantage from the 2025 season. That baseline matters, but it is one input among several. Matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and injury reports move the needle week to week, which is why the best answer changes depending on when you are asking.

Justin Herbert offers meaningful rushing upside with 498 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Derek Carr (3428 passing yards, 22 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Derek Carr has his bye in Week 12, and Justin Herbert rests in Week 7. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Derek Carr (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Justin Herbert (age 28) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Justin Herbert outscored Derek Carr by a projected 36 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Justin Herbert played 16 games in 2025 compared to Derek Carr's 15. That durability gap means Justin Herbert contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Justin Herbert scored 28 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Justin Herbert added 498 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Derek Carr vs Justin Herbert: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Derek Carr	Justin Herbert
PPG (Half-PPR)	15.8	17.9
Games Played	15	16
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	237	286
Passing Yards	3,428	3,727
Passing TDs	22	26
Pass Yds/Game	228.5	232.9
Rushing Yards	105	498
Rushing TDs	1	2
Total TDs	23	28
TDs/Game	1.5	1.8
Age	-	28
Experience	-	5 yrs
Bye Week	Week 12	Week 7

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Justin Herbert holds the PPG edge with solid output at 17.9 points per game. Derek Carr averaged 15.8 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Derek Carr or Justin Herbert in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Justin Herbert has the edge at 17.9 PPG compared to Derek Carr's 15.8 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Derek Carr and Justin Herbert average in 2025?▾

Derek Carr averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 15 games in 2025. Justin Herbert averaged 17.9 PPG over 16 games. That is a difference of 2.1 points per game.

When are Derek Carr and Justin Herbert's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Derek Carr (NO) has a bye in Week 12, and Justin Herbert (LAC) has a bye in Week 7. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Derek Carr or Justin Herbert a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Justin Herbert outscored Derek Carr by 2.1 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.