Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Derek Carr vs Michael Penix Jr.Who should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Derek Carr is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 15.8 PPG to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Derek Carr is the better fantasy play this season.

Derek Carr has the edge, but it is not a runaway. The 2.4-PPG advantage is real (15.8 to 13.4), and Derek Carr's 23 touchdowns show scoring upside. Michael Penix Jr. is the buy-low candidate if recent production has dipped, because the talent gap is smaller than the numbers suggest.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBNew Orleans Saints#99PPG LEADER

Derek Carr

PPG

15.8

Games

Pass Yds

3,428

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

105

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 12

QBAtlanta Falcons#29

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 11

The Edge Chart

Derek Carr

Michael Penix Jr.

Head to Head

15.8 PPG13.4 PPG

15 GP9 GP

Bye: Week 12Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Tiers

Derek Carr: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Derek Carr is producing at 72% of elite pace and Michael Penix Jr. at 61%. That ranking gap means Michael Penix Jr. carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Derek Carr vs Michael Penix Jr.: The Full Breakdown

Two quarterbacks who will land on plenty of the same rosters in 2026. Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints) finished the 2025 season averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game in 15 games. Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons) came in at 13.4 PPG over 9 games. The gap is real but not insurmountable with the right matchup.

Derek Carr carries a 2.4-point PPG advantage from the 2025 season. That baseline matters, but it is one input among several. Matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and injury reports move the needle week to week, which is why the best answer changes depending on when you are asking.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Derek Carr threw for 3428 yards and 22 touchdowns, while Michael Penix Jr. posted 1982 yards and 9 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

One scheduling note: Derek Carr is off Week 12 and Michael Penix Jr. Week 11. If these two are on your roster, you will need a fill-in quarterback for both weeks. DraftCall flags bye conflicts so you can plan ahead rather than panic on waivers.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Derek Carr (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Derek Carr outscored Michael Penix Jr. by a projected 41 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Derek Carr played 15 games in 2025 compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 9. That durability gap means Derek Carr contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Derek Carr scored 23 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.5 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Derek Carr vs Michael Penix Jr.: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Derek Carr	Michael Penix Jr.
PPG (Half-PPR)	15.8	13.4
Games Played	15	9
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	237	121
Passing Yards	3,428	1,982
Passing TDs	22	9
Pass Yds/Game	228.5	220.2
Rushing Yards	105	70
Rushing TDs	1	1
Total TDs	23	10
TDs/Game	1.5	1.1
Age	-	26
Experience	-	1 yrs
Bye Week	Week 12	Week 11

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Derek Carr holds the PPG edge with solid output at 15.8 points per game. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Derek Carr or Michael Penix Jr. in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Derek Carr has the edge at 15.8 PPG compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Derek Carr and Michael Penix Jr. average in 2025?▾

Derek Carr averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 15 games in 2025. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG over 9 games. That is a difference of 2.4 points per game.

When are Derek Carr and Michael Penix Jr.'s bye weeks in 2026?▾

Derek Carr (NO) has a bye in Week 12, and Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has a bye in Week 11. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Derek Carr or Michael Penix Jr. a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Derek Carr outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 2.4 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.