Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Joe Burrow vs Michael Penix Jr.Who should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Joe Burrow is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 16.8 PPG to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Joe Burrow is the better fantasy play this season.

Joe Burrow has the edge, but it is not a runaway. The 3.4-PPG advantage is real (16.8 to 13.4), and Joe Burrow's 17 touchdowns show scoring upside. Michael Penix Jr. is the buy-low candidate if recent production has dipped, because the talent gap is smaller than the numbers suggest.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBCincinnati Bengals#15PPG LEADER

Joe Burrow

PPG

16.8

Games

Pass Yds

1,809

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 6

QBAtlanta Falcons#29

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 11

The Edge Chart

Joe Burrow

Michael Penix Jr.

Head to Head

16.8 PPG13.4 PPG

8 GP9 GP

Bye: Week 6Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Tiers

Joe Burrow: Tier 3 (Flex/Starter) QB (ranked #15 at the position). Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Joe Burrow is producing at 76% of elite pace and Michael Penix Jr. at 61%. That ranking gap means Joe Burrow carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Joe Burrow vs Michael Penix Jr.: The Full Breakdown

Two quarterbacks who will land on plenty of the same rosters in 2026. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) finished the 2025 season averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game in 8 games. Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons) came in at 13.4 PPG over 9 games. The gap is real but not insurmountable with the right matchup.

Joe Burrow carries a 3.4-point PPG advantage from the 2025 season. That baseline matters, but it is one input among several. Matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and injury reports move the needle week to week, which is why the best answer changes depending on when you are asking.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Joe Burrow threw for 1809 yards and 17 touchdowns, while Michael Penix Jr. posted 1982 yards and 9 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Joe Burrow sits Week 6 while Michael Penix Jr. is off Week 11. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Joe Burrow at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Michael Penix Jr. is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Joe Burrow (age 29) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Joe Burrow outscored Michael Penix Jr. by a projected 58 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games in 2025 compared to Joe Burrow's 8. That durability gap means Michael Penix Jr. contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Joe Burrow scored 17 total touchdowns in 2025 (2.1 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Joe Burrow vs Michael Penix Jr.: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Joe Burrow	Michael Penix Jr.
PPG (Half-PPR)	16.8	13.4
Games Played	8	9
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	134	121
Passing Yards	1,809	1,982
Passing TDs	17	9
Pass Yds/Game	226.1	220.2
Rushing Yards	41	70
Rushing TDs	0	1
Total TDs	17	10
TDs/Game	2.1	1.1
Age	29	26
Experience	5 yrs	1 yrs
Bye Week	Week 6	Week 11

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Joe Burrow holds the PPG edge with solid output at 16.8 points per game. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Joe Burrow or Michael Penix Jr. in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Joe Burrow has the edge at 16.8 PPG compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Joe Burrow and Michael Penix Jr. average in 2025?▾

Joe Burrow averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 8 games in 2025. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG over 9 games. That is a difference of 3.4 points per game.

When are Joe Burrow and Michael Penix Jr.'s bye weeks in 2026?▾

Joe Burrow (CIN) has a bye in Week 6, and Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has a bye in Week 11. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Joe Burrow or Michael Penix Jr. a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Joe Burrow outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 3.4 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.