Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Joe Burrow vs Patrick MahomesWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 20.4 PPG to Joe Burrow's 16.8 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Patrick Mahomes is the better play on a neutral week. 20.4 PPG with 3,999 yards gives a reliable baseline. Joe Burrow at 16.8 PPG is not far behind and could win specific weeks where matchup and game script align. Draft Patrick Mahomes higher, but do not fade Joe Burrow entirely.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBCincinnati Bengals#15

Joe Burrow

PPG

16.8

Games

Pass Yds

1,809

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 6

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

The Edge Chart

Joe Burrow

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

16.8 PPG20.4 PPG

8 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 6Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Tiers

Joe Burrow: Tier 3 (Flex/Starter) QB (ranked #15 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Joe Burrow is producing at 76% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Joe Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes: The Full Breakdown

Deciding between Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes is a common lineup dilemma for fantasy managers. The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback put up 16.8 PPG in 2025 over 8 games; Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs averaged 20.4 in 14. A 3.6-point margin that could shift on any given week.

The per-game difference of 3.6 points favors Patrick Mahomes, though savvy managers know that gap can shrink or widen depending on the weekly slate. Defensive matchup, recent scoring trends, and health status all shift the calculus from one quarterback to the other.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Joe Burrow (1809 passing yards, 17 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Joe Burrow sits Week 6 while Patrick Mahomes is off Week 5. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Patrick Mahomes is a buy in trades where the other manager is chasing upside at a different position. Joe Burrow is a hold unless you can flip him for a positional upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Dynasty outlook: Joe Burrow (age 29) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored Joe Burrow by a projected 61 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025 compared to Joe Burrow's 8. That durability gap means Patrick Mahomes contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Patrick Mahomes scored 27 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.9 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Joe Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Joe Burrow	Patrick Mahomes
PPG (Half-PPR)	16.8	20.4
Games Played	8	14
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	134	286
Passing Yards	1,809	3,587
Passing TDs	17	22
Pass Yds/Game	226.1	256.2
Rushing Yards	41	422
Rushing TDs	0	5
Total TDs	17	27
TDs/Game	2.1	1.9
Age	29	30
Experience	5 yrs	8 yrs
Bye Week	Week 6	Week 5

Summary

20.4 PPG for Patrick Mahomes versus 16.8 for Joe Burrow in 2025. The baseline favors Patrick Mahomes, though the right weekly matchup can flip the script. For a full breakdown that weighs matchup quality, form, and injury reports, try DraftCall's AI comparison engine.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Joe Burrow's 16.8 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Joe Burrow averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 8 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 3.6 points per game.

When are Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Joe Burrow (CIN) has a bye in Week 6, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 5. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored Joe Burrow by 3.6 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.