Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Josh Downs vs Luther Burden IIIWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Luther Burden III is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 7.0 PPG to Josh Downs's 6.7 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Luther Burden III is the better fantasy play this season.

This one is genuinely close. Luther Burden III edges Josh Downs by 0.3 PPG, but both are in the same production tier. The decision comes down to weekly matchup, not season-long resume. If you are choosing between them in a draft, Luther Burden III goes slightly earlier based on volume, but do not reach for the difference.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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WRIndianapolis Colts#99

Josh Downs

PPG

6.7

Games

Rec

Rec Yds

566

Rec TDs

Targets

Bye

Week 14

WRChicago Bears#60PPG LEADER

Luther Burden III

PPG

7.0

Games

Rec

Rec Yds

652

Rec TDs

Targets

Bye

Week 10

The Edge Chart

Josh Downs

Luther Burden III

Head to Head

6.7 PPG7.0 PPG

16 GP15 GP

Bye: Week 14Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Tiers

Josh Downs: Tier 5 (Deep League) WR (ranked #99 at the position). Luther Burden III: Tier 5 (Deep League) WR (ranked #60 at the position). Among the top 50 wide receivers this season, Josh Downs is producing at 30% of elite pace and Luther Burden III at 32%. That ranking gap means Luther Burden III carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Josh Downs vs Luther Burden III: The Full Breakdown

This is a genuine coin flip on paper. Josh Downs finished the 2025 season at 6.7 PPG over 16 games with the Indianapolis Colts, while Luther Burden III clocked in at 7.0 across 15 appearances for the Chicago Bears. A 0.3-point gap means any given week could go either way.

With a margin this thin, season averages are not the deciding factor. Weekly variables like opponent defense, game script, and injury status carry more weight than a fraction of a PPG. The right start in Week 6 might be the wrong start in Week 14.

Target volume is the story here. Josh Downs saw 88 targets in 2025, while Luther Burden III drew 60. That workload gap usually translates into a higher weekly floor for Josh Downs, even in weeks where Luther Burden III posts the bigger ceiling game. Consistency-minded managers lean toward target share; boom-bust managers chase the upside.

One scheduling note: Josh Downs is off Week 14 and Luther Burden III Week 10. If these two are on your roster, you will need a fill-in wide receiver for both weeks. DraftCall flags bye conflicts so you can plan ahead rather than panic on waivers.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Josh Downs (age 24) has years of prime production ahead. Buy-and-hold dynasty asset. Luther Burden III (age 22) has years of prime production ahead. Buy-and-hold dynasty asset.

Did You Know?

•Luther Burden III outscored Josh Downs by a projected 5 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Josh Downs played 16 games in 2025 compared to Luther Burden III's 15. That durability gap means Josh Downs contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Josh Downs scored 4 total touchdowns in 2025 (0.3 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at wide receiver.
•Josh Downs saw 88 targets in 2025. Target volume is the single strongest predictor of weekly PPR production at the wide receiver position.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Josh Downs vs Luther Burden III: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Josh Downs	Luther Burden III
PPG (Half-PPR)	6.7	7.0
Games Played	16	15
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	107	105
Receptions	58	47
Rec/Game	3.6	3.1
Receiving Yards	566	652
Rec Yds/Game	35.4	43.5
Receiving TDs	4	2
Targets	88	60
Target Share/Game	5.5	4.0
Age	24	22
Experience	3 yrs	-
Bye Week	Week 14	Week 10

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Luther Burden III holds the PPG edge with low-end output at 7.0 points per game. Josh Downs averaged 6.7 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Josh Downs or Luther Burden III in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Luther Burden III has the edge at 7.0 PPG compared to Josh Downs's 6.7 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Josh Downs and Luther Burden III average in 2025?▾

Josh Downs averaged 6.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 16 games in 2025. Luther Burden III averaged 7.0 PPG over 15 games. That is a difference of 0.3 points per game.

When are Josh Downs and Luther Burden III's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Josh Downs (IND) has a bye in Week 14, and Luther Burden III (CHI) has a bye in Week 10. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Josh Downs or Luther Burden III a better fantasy wide receiver in 2026?▾

Luther Burden III outscored Josh Downs by 0.3 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.