Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Matthew Stafford vs Michael Penix Jr.Who should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Matthew Stafford is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 20.6 PPG to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Matthew Stafford is the better fantasy play this season.

Matthew Stafford is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 20.6 PPG and 4,708 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Michael Penix Jr. (13.4 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Matthew Stafford as the starter and Michael Penix Jr. as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBLos Angeles Rams#3PPG LEADER

Matthew Stafford

PPG

20.6

Games

Pass Yds

4,707

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 11

QBAtlanta Falcons#29

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 11

The Edge Chart

Matthew Stafford

Michael Penix Jr.

Head to Head

20.6 PPG13.4 PPG

17 GP9 GP

Bye: Week 11Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Tiers

Matthew Stafford: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #3 at the position). Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Matthew Stafford is producing at 94% of elite pace and Michael Penix Jr. at 61%. That ranking gap means Matthew Stafford carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Matthew Stafford vs Michael Penix Jr.: The Full Breakdown

The numbers tell a clear story here. Matthew Stafford put up 20.6 fantasy points per game for the Los Angeles Rams in 2025, while Michael Penix Jr. managed 13.4 across 9 games with the Atlanta Falcons. A 7.2-point weekly edge is substantial at the quarterback position.

Matthew Stafford carries a 7.2-point PPG advantage from the 2025 season. That baseline matters, but it is one input among several. Matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and injury reports move the needle week to week, which is why the best answer changes depending on when you are asking.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Matthew Stafford threw for 4707 yards and 46 touchdowns, while Michael Penix Jr. posted 1982 yards and 9 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

One thing to note: both players share a Week 11 bye. That means you need a backup plan at quarterback for that week, especially if one of these two is your starter.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Matthew Stafford at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Michael Penix Jr. is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Matthew Stafford (age 38) is on the back end of his prime. Strong now, but dynasty value declines year over year. Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Matthew Stafford outscored Michael Penix Jr. by a projected 122 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Matthew Stafford played 17 games in 2025 compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 9. That durability gap means Matthew Stafford contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Matthew Stafford scored 46 total touchdowns in 2025 (2.7 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Michael Penix Jr. is 12 years younger than Matthew Stafford (26 vs 38), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.
•Both players share a Week 11 bye. If you roster both, you will need a replacement at the position that week.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Matthew Stafford vs Michael Penix Jr.: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Matthew Stafford	Michael Penix Jr.
PPG (Half-PPR)	20.6	13.4
Games Played	17	9
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	350	121
Passing Yards	4,707	1,982
Passing TDs	46	9
Pass Yds/Game	276.9	220.2
Rushing Yards	1	70
Rushing TDs	0	1
Total TDs	46	10
TDs/Game	2.7	1.1
Age	38	26
Experience	16 yrs	1 yrs
Bye Week	Week 11	Week 11

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Matthew Stafford holds the PPG edge with strong output at 20.6 points per game. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Matthew Stafford or Michael Penix Jr. in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Matthew Stafford has the edge at 20.6 PPG compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Matthew Stafford and Michael Penix Jr. average in 2025?▾

Matthew Stafford averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 17 games in 2025. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG over 9 games. That is a difference of 7.2 points per game.

Do Matthew Stafford and Michael Penix Jr. share a bye week?▾

Yes, both Matthew Stafford and Michael Penix Jr. share a Week 11 bye in 2026. If you roster both, you will need a fill-in at quarterback for that week.

Is Matthew Stafford or Michael Penix Jr. a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Matthew Stafford outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 7.2 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.