Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Caleb Williams vs Patrick MahomesWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 20.4 PPG to Caleb Williams's 18.7 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Patrick Mahomes is the better play on a neutral week. 20.4 PPG with 3,999 yards gives a reliable baseline. Caleb Williams at 18.7 PPG is not far behind and could win specific weeks where matchup and game script align. Draft Patrick Mahomes higher, but do not fade Caleb Williams entirely.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBChicago Bears#8

Caleb Williams

PPG

18.7

Games

Pass Yds

3,942

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

383

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

The Edge Chart

Caleb Williams

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

18.7 PPG20.4 PPG

17 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Tiers

Caleb Williams: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #8 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Caleb Williams is producing at 85% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Caleb Williams vs Patrick Mahomes: The Full Breakdown

Deciding between Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes is a common lineup dilemma for fantasy managers. The Chicago Bears quarterback put up 18.7 PPG in 2025 over 17 games; Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs averaged 20.4 in 14. A 1.7-point margin that could shift on any given week.

The per-game difference of 1.7 points favors Patrick Mahomes, though savvy managers know that gap can shrink or widen depending on the weekly slate. Defensive matchup, recent scoring trends, and health status all shift the calculus from one quarterback to the other.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Caleb Williams (3942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Caleb Williams has his bye in Week 10, and Patrick Mahomes rests in Week 5. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Caleb Williams (age 24) is in the early stages of his career with 5+ years of starter-caliber upside. His dynasty value is rising. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored Caleb Williams by a projected 29 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Caleb Williams played 17 games in 2025 compared to Patrick Mahomes's 14. That durability gap means Caleb Williams contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Caleb Williams scored 31 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.
•Caleb Williams is 6 years younger than Patrick Mahomes (24 vs 30), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Caleb Williams vs Patrick Mahomes: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Caleb Williams	Patrick Mahomes
PPG (Half-PPR)	18.7	20.4
Games Played	17	14
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	318	286
Passing Yards	3,942	3,587
Passing TDs	27	22
Pass Yds/Game	231.9	256.2
Rushing Yards	383	422
Rushing TDs	3	5
Total TDs	31	27
TDs/Game	1.8	1.9
Age	24	30
Experience	1 yrs	8 yrs
Bye Week	Week 10	Week 5

Summary

20.4 PPG for Patrick Mahomes versus 18.7 for Caleb Williams in 2025. The baseline favors Patrick Mahomes, though the right weekly matchup can flip the script. For a full breakdown that weighs matchup quality, form, and injury reports, try DraftCall's AI comparison engine.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Caleb Williams's 18.7 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 17 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 1.7 points per game.

When are Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Caleb Williams (CHI) has a bye in Week 10, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 5. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored Caleb Williams by 1.7 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.