Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Gardner Minshew vs Marcus MariotaWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Marcus Mariota is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 12.6 PPG to Gardner Minshew's 12.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Marcus Mariota is the better fantasy play this season.

This one is genuinely close. Marcus Mariota edges Gardner Minshew by 0.2 PPG, but both are in the same production tier. The decision comes down to weekly matchup, not season-long resume. If you are choosing between them in a draft, Marcus Mariota goes slightly earlier based on volume, but do not reach for the difference.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBLas Vegas Raiders#99

Gardner Minshew

PPG

12.4

Games

Pass Yds

2,420

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

125

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBWashington Commanders#31PPG LEADER

Marcus Mariota

PPG

12.6

Games

Pass Yds

1,695

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

297

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 7

The Edge Chart

Gardner Minshew

Marcus Mariota

Head to Head

12.4 PPG12.6 PPG

12 GP10 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Tiers

Gardner Minshew: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Marcus Mariota: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #31 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Gardner Minshew is producing at 56% of elite pace and Marcus Mariota at 57%. That ranking gap means Marcus Mariota carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Gardner Minshew vs Marcus Mariota: The Full Breakdown

Gardner Minshew (12.4 PPG) and Marcus Mariota (12.6 PPG) produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2025. When two quarterbacks are this close on a per-game basis, the weekly matchup matters more than the season-long resume. Gardner Minshew played 12 games for the Las Vegas Raiders; Marcus Mariota suited up 10 times for the Washington Commanders.

A 0.2-point per-game gap over a full season is essentially noise. It means one extra catch, one fewer target, or a single broken play away from flipping the script. For a weekly start/sit call between these two, matchup analysis matters far more than the season line.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Gardner Minshew threw for 2420 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Marcus Mariota posted 1695 yards and 10 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Gardner Minshew sits Week 10 while Marcus Mariota is off Week 7. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Gardner Minshew (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Marcus Mariota (age 32) is on the back end of his prime. Strong now, but dynasty value declines year over year.

Did You Know?

•Marcus Mariota outscored Gardner Minshew by a projected 3 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Gardner Minshew played 12 games in 2025 compared to Marcus Mariota's 10. That durability gap means Gardner Minshew contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Gardner Minshew scored 15 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.3 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Gardner Minshew vs Marcus Mariota: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Gardner Minshew	Marcus Mariota
PPG (Half-PPR)	12.4	12.6
Games Played	12	10
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	149	126
Passing Yards	2,420	1,695
Passing TDs	14	10
Pass Yds/Game	201.7	169.5
Rushing Yards	125	297
Rushing TDs	1	1
Total TDs	15	11
TDs/Game	1.3	1.1
Age	-	32
Experience	-	10 yrs
Bye Week	Week 10	Week 7

Summary

Marcus Mariota outscored Gardner Minshew by 0.2 PPG in 2025 (12.6 to 12.4). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Gardner Minshew or Marcus Mariota in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Marcus Mariota has the edge at 12.6 PPG compared to Gardner Minshew's 12.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota average in 2025?▾

Gardner Minshew averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 12 games in 2025. Marcus Mariota averaged 12.6 PPG over 10 games. That is a difference of 0.2 points per game.

When are Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Gardner Minshew (LV) has a bye in Week 10, and Marcus Mariota (WAS) has a bye in Week 7. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Gardner Minshew or Marcus Mariota a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Marcus Mariota outscored Gardner Minshew by 0.2 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.