Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Gardner Minshew vs Michael Penix Jr.Who should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Michael Penix Jr. is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 13.4 PPG to Gardner Minshew's 12.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Michael Penix Jr. is the better fantasy play this season.

Statistically, Michael Penix Jr. and Gardner Minshew are interchangeable on a season-long basis. The 1.0-PPG gap is one broken play per game. For weekly start/sit calls, check opponent defense and recent form before defaulting to the name.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBLas Vegas Raiders#99

Gardner Minshew

PPG

12.4

Games

Pass Yds

2,420

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

125

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBAtlanta Falcons#29PPG LEADER

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 11

The Edge Chart

Gardner Minshew

Michael Penix Jr.

Head to Head

12.4 PPG13.4 PPG

12 GP9 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Tiers

Gardner Minshew: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Gardner Minshew is producing at 56% of elite pace and Michael Penix Jr. at 61%. That ranking gap means Michael Penix Jr. carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Gardner Minshew vs Michael Penix Jr.: The Full Breakdown

Gardner Minshew (12.4 PPG) and Michael Penix Jr. (13.4 PPG) produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2025. When two quarterbacks are this close on a per-game basis, the weekly matchup matters more than the season-long resume. Gardner Minshew played 12 games for the Las Vegas Raiders; Michael Penix Jr. suited up 9 times for the Atlanta Falcons.

A 1.0-point per-game gap over a full season is essentially noise. It means one extra catch, one fewer target, or a single broken play away from flipping the script. For a weekly start/sit call between these two, matchup analysis matters far more than the season line.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Gardner Minshew threw for 2420 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Michael Penix Jr. posted 1982 yards and 9 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Gardner Minshew sits Week 10 while Michael Penix Jr. is off Week 11. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Gardner Minshew (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Michael Penix Jr. outscored Gardner Minshew by a projected 17 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Gardner Minshew played 12 games in 2025 compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 9. That durability gap means Gardner Minshew contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Gardner Minshew scored 15 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.3 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Gardner Minshew vs Michael Penix Jr.: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Gardner Minshew	Michael Penix Jr.
PPG (Half-PPR)	12.4	13.4
Games Played	12	9
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	149	121
Passing Yards	2,420	1,982
Passing TDs	14	9
Pass Yds/Game	201.7	220.2
Rushing Yards	125	70
Rushing TDs	1	1
Total TDs	15	10
TDs/Game	1.3	1.1
Age	-	26
Experience	-	1 yrs
Bye Week	Week 10	Week 11

Summary

The 2025 numbers favor Michael Penix Jr. at 13.4 PPG, 1.0 points per game above Gardner Minshew's 12.4. But season stats only tell part of the story. DraftCall's AI factors in weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status to give you a verdict that updates with the latest data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Gardner Minshew or Michael Penix Jr. in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Michael Penix Jr. has the edge at 13.4 PPG compared to Gardner Minshew's 12.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Gardner Minshew and Michael Penix Jr. average in 2025?▾

Gardner Minshew averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 12 games in 2025. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG over 9 games. That is a difference of 1.0 points per game.

When are Gardner Minshew and Michael Penix Jr.'s bye weeks in 2026?▾

Gardner Minshew (LV) has a bye in Week 10, and Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has a bye in Week 11. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Gardner Minshew or Michael Penix Jr. a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Michael Penix Jr. outscored Gardner Minshew by 1.0 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.