Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Gardner Minshew vs Patrick MahomesWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 20.4 PPG to Gardner Minshew's 12.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Patrick Mahomes is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 20.4 PPG and 3,999 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Gardner Minshew (12.4 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Patrick Mahomes as the starter and Gardner Minshew as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBLas Vegas Raiders#99

Gardner Minshew

PPG

12.4

Games

Pass Yds

2,420

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

125

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

The Edge Chart

Gardner Minshew

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

12.4 PPG20.4 PPG

12 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Tiers

Gardner Minshew: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Gardner Minshew is producing at 56% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Gardner Minshew vs Patrick Mahomes: The Full Breakdown

Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew are at different tiers heading into 2026. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback averaged 20.4 PPG in 2025, a full 8.0 points per game ahead of Gardner Minshew's 12.4 with the Las Vegas Raiders. That kind of gap doesn't close on matchup alone.

Patrick Mahomes carries a 8.0-point PPG advantage from the 2025 season. That baseline matters, but it is one input among several. Matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and injury reports move the needle week to week, which is why the best answer changes depending on when you are asking.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Gardner Minshew (2420 passing yards, 14 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Gardner Minshew has his bye in Week 10, and Patrick Mahomes rests in Week 5. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Patrick Mahomes at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Gardner Minshew is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Gardner Minshew (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored Gardner Minshew by a projected 136 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025 compared to Gardner Minshew's 12. That durability gap means Patrick Mahomes contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Patrick Mahomes scored 27 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.9 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Gardner Minshew vs Patrick Mahomes: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Gardner Minshew	Patrick Mahomes
PPG (Half-PPR)	12.4	20.4
Games Played	12	14
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	149	286
Passing Yards	2,420	3,587
Passing TDs	14	22
Pass Yds/Game	201.7	256.2
Rushing Yards	125	422
Rushing TDs	1	5
Total TDs	15	27
TDs/Game	1.3	1.9
Age	-	30
Experience	-	8 yrs
Bye Week	Week 10	Week 5

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Patrick Mahomes holds the PPG edge with strong output at 20.4 points per game. Gardner Minshew averaged 12.4 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Gardner Minshew or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Gardner Minshew's 12.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Gardner Minshew and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Gardner Minshew averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 12 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 8.0 points per game.

When are Gardner Minshew and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Gardner Minshew (LV) has a bye in Week 10, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 5. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Gardner Minshew or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored Gardner Minshew by 8.0 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.