Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Joe Burrow vs Justin HerbertWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 17.9 PPG to Joe Burrow's 16.8 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy play this season.

This one is genuinely close. Justin Herbert edges Joe Burrow by 1.1 PPG, but both are in the same production tier. The decision comes down to weekly matchup, not season-long resume. If you are choosing between them in a draft, Justin Herbert goes slightly earlier based on volume, but do not reach for the difference.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBCincinnati Bengals#15

Joe Burrow

PPG

16.8

Games

Pass Yds

1,809

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 6

QBLos Angeles Chargers#10PPG LEADER

Justin Herbert

PPG

17.9

Games

Pass Yds

3,727

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

498

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 7

The Edge Chart

Joe Burrow

Justin Herbert

Head to Head

16.8 PPG17.9 PPG

8 GP16 GP

Bye: Week 6Bye: Week 7

Fantasy Tiers

Joe Burrow: Tier 3 (Flex/Starter) QB (ranked #15 at the position). Justin Herbert: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #10 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Joe Burrow is producing at 76% of elite pace and Justin Herbert at 81%. That ranking gap means Justin Herbert carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Joe Burrow vs Justin Herbert: The Full Breakdown

Joe Burrow (16.8 PPG) and Justin Herbert (17.9 PPG) produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2025. When two quarterbacks are this close on a per-game basis, the weekly matchup matters more than the season-long resume. Joe Burrow played 8 games for the Cincinnati Bengals; Justin Herbert suited up 16 times for the Los Angeles Chargers.

A 1.1-point per-game gap over a full season is essentially noise. It means one extra catch, one fewer target, or a single broken play away from flipping the script. For a weekly start/sit call between these two, matchup analysis matters far more than the season line.

Justin Herbert offers meaningful rushing upside with 498 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Joe Burrow (1809 passing yards, 17 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Joe Burrow sits Week 6 while Justin Herbert is off Week 7. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Joe Burrow (age 29) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Justin Herbert (age 28) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Justin Herbert outscored Joe Burrow by a projected 19 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Justin Herbert played 16 games in 2025 compared to Joe Burrow's 8. That durability gap means Justin Herbert contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Justin Herbert scored 28 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Justin Herbert added 498 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Joe Burrow vs Justin Herbert: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Joe Burrow	Justin Herbert
PPG (Half-PPR)	16.8	17.9
Games Played	8	16
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	134	286
Passing Yards	1,809	3,727
Passing TDs	17	26
Pass Yds/Game	226.1	232.9
Rushing Yards	41	498
Rushing TDs	0	2
Total TDs	17	28
TDs/Game	2.1	1.8
Age	29	28
Experience	5 yrs	5 yrs
Bye Week	Week 6	Week 7

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Justin Herbert holds the PPG edge with solid output at 17.9 points per game. Joe Burrow averaged 16.8 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Justin Herbert has the edge at 17.9 PPG compared to Joe Burrow's 16.8 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert average in 2025?▾

Joe Burrow averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 8 games in 2025. Justin Herbert averaged 17.9 PPG over 16 games. That is a difference of 1.1 points per game.

When are Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Joe Burrow (CIN) has a bye in Week 6, and Justin Herbert (LAC) has a bye in Week 7. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Justin Herbert outscored Joe Burrow by 1.1 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.