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Updated September 8, 2026 from live stats

Josh Allen or Patrick MahomesWho should you draft or start in 2026 fantasy football?

DraftCall Analytics

Start Josh Allen over Patrick Mahomes in 2026.

Josh Allen averaged 22.8 PPG in 2025 to Patrick Mahomes's 20.4, a 2.4 point per game edge. Both play quarterbacks, so that per-game gap is the cleanest tiebreaker for a 2026 start or sit. Both land in Tier 1 at the position, so this is closer than the raw gap suggests.

The Bottom Line

Josh Allen has the edge, but it is not a runaway. The 2.4-PPG advantage is real (22.8 to 20.4), and Josh Allen's 39 touchdowns show scoring upside. Patrick Mahomes is the buy-low candidate if recent production has dipped, because the talent gap is smaller than the numbers suggest.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBBuffalo Bills#1PPG LEADER

Josh Allen

PPG

22.8

Games

Pass Yds

3,668

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

579

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 7

QBKansas City Chiefs#4

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

The Edge Chart

Josh Allen

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

22.8 PPG20.4 PPG

16 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 7Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Tiers

Josh Allen: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #1 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Josh Allen is producing at 104% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. These two are close enough in the rankings that weekly matchup should dictate your start.

Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes: The Full Breakdown

Two quarterbacks who will land on plenty of the same rosters in 2026. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) finished the 2025 season averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game in 16 games. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) came in at 20.4 PPG over 14 games. The gap is real but not insurmountable with the right matchup.

Josh Allen carries a 2.4-point PPG advantage from the 2025 season. That baseline matters, but it is one input among several. Matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and injury reports move the needle week to week, which is why the best answer changes depending on when you are asking.

Both are dual-threat quarterbacks. Josh Allen added 579 rushing yards and Patrick Mahomes chipped in 422, which gives them a higher weekly floor than traditional pocket passers when defenses take away the deep ball. That rushing production is the biggest reason their ceilings look different from drop-back QBs, and it is the stat that typically separates them on tough passing matchups.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Josh Allen sits Week 7 while Patrick Mahomes is off Week 5. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Josh Allen (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Josh Allen outscored Patrick Mahomes by a projected 41 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Josh Allen played 16 games in 2025 compared to Patrick Mahomes's 14. That durability gap means Josh Allen contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Josh Allen scored 39 total touchdowns in 2025 (2.4 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Josh Allen added 579 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Josh Allen	Patrick Mahomes
PPG (Half-PPR)	22.8	20.4
Games Played	16	14
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	365	286
Passing Yards	3,668	3,587
Passing TDs	25	22
Pass Yds/Game	229.3	256.2
Rushing Yards	579	422
Rushing TDs	14	5
Total TDs	39	27
TDs/Game	2.4	1.9
Age	30	30
Experience	7 yrs	8 yrs
Bye Week	Week 7	Week 5

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Josh Allen holds the PPG edge with elite output at 22.8 points per game. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Josh Allen has the edge at 22.8 PPG compared to Patrick Mahomes's 20.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

Should I draft Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?▾

Josh Allen is the earlier pick. He averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game in 2025 to Patrick Mahomes's 20.4, a 2.4 point per game edge over a full season. Positional rank, fantasy tier, and bye week are broken down below.

How many fantasy points did Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Josh Allen averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 16 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 2.4 points per game.

When are Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Josh Allen (BUF) has a bye in Week 7, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 5. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Josh Allen outscored Patrick Mahomes by 2.4 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.