Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Justin Herbert vs Michael Penix Jr.Who should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 17.9 PPG to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Justin Herbert is the better fantasy play this season.

Justin Herbert has the edge, but it is not a runaway. The 4.5-PPG advantage is real (17.9 to 13.4), and Justin Herbert's 28 touchdowns show scoring upside. Michael Penix Jr. is the buy-low candidate if recent production has dipped, because the talent gap is smaller than the numbers suggest.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBLos Angeles Chargers#10PPG LEADER

Justin Herbert

PPG

17.9

Games

Pass Yds

3,727

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

498

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 7

QBAtlanta Falcons#29

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 11

The Edge Chart

Justin Herbert

Michael Penix Jr.

Head to Head

17.9 PPG13.4 PPG

16 GP9 GP

Bye: Week 7Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Tiers

Justin Herbert: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #10 at the position). Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Justin Herbert is producing at 81% of elite pace and Michael Penix Jr. at 61%. That ranking gap means Justin Herbert carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Justin Herbert vs Michael Penix Jr.: The Full Breakdown

Two quarterbacks who will land on plenty of the same rosters in 2026. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) finished the 2025 season averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game in 16 games. Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons) came in at 13.4 PPG over 9 games. The gap is real but not insurmountable with the right matchup.

Justin Herbert carries a 4.5-point PPG advantage from the 2025 season. That baseline matters, but it is one input among several. Matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and injury reports move the needle week to week, which is why the best answer changes depending on when you are asking.

Justin Herbert offers meaningful rushing upside with 498 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Michael Penix Jr. (1982 passing yards, 9 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Justin Herbert has his bye in Week 7, and Michael Penix Jr. rests in Week 11. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Justin Herbert at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Michael Penix Jr. is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Justin Herbert (age 28) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Justin Herbert outscored Michael Penix Jr. by a projected 76 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Justin Herbert played 16 games in 2025 compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 9. That durability gap means Justin Herbert contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Justin Herbert scored 28 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Justin Herbert added 498 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Justin Herbert vs Michael Penix Jr.: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Justin Herbert	Michael Penix Jr.
PPG (Half-PPR)	17.9	13.4
Games Played	16	9
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	286	121
Passing Yards	3,727	1,982
Passing TDs	26	9
Pass Yds/Game	232.9	220.2
Rushing Yards	498	70
Rushing TDs	2	1
Total TDs	28	10
TDs/Game	1.8	1.1
Age	28	26
Experience	5 yrs	1 yrs
Bye Week	Week 7	Week 11

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Justin Herbert holds the PPG edge with solid output at 17.9 points per game. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Justin Herbert or Michael Penix Jr. in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Justin Herbert has the edge at 17.9 PPG compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Justin Herbert and Michael Penix Jr. average in 2025?▾

Justin Herbert averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 16 games in 2025. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG over 9 games. That is a difference of 4.5 points per game.

When are Justin Herbert and Michael Penix Jr.'s bye weeks in 2026?▾

Justin Herbert (LAC) has a bye in Week 7, and Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has a bye in Week 11. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Justin Herbert or Michael Penix Jr. a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Justin Herbert outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 4.5 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.