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Head to Head

Updated from live stats

Justin Herbert vs Patrick MahomesWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 20.4 PPG to Justin Herbert's 17.9 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Patrick Mahomes is the better play on a neutral week. 20.4 PPG with 3,999 yards gives a reliable baseline. Justin Herbert at 17.9 PPG is not far behind and could win specific weeks where matchup and game script align. Draft Patrick Mahomes higher, but do not fade Justin Herbert entirely.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBLos Angeles Chargers#10
Justin Herbert
PPG
17.9
Games
16
Pass Yds
3,727
Pass TDs
26
Rush Yds
498
Rush TDs
2
Bye
Week 7
QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER
Patrick Mahomes
PPG
20.4
Games
14
Pass Yds
3,587
Pass TDs
22
Rush Yds
422
Rush TDs
5
Bye
Week 5

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

17.9 PPG20.4 PPG
16 GP14 GP
Bye: Week 7Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Tiers

Justin Herbert: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #10 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Justin Herbert is producing at 81% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Justin Herbert vs Patrick Mahomes: The Full Breakdown

Deciding between Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes is a common lineup dilemma for fantasy managers. The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback put up 17.9 PPG in 2025 over 16 games; Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs averaged 20.4 in 14. A 2.5-point margin that could shift on any given week.

The per-game difference of 2.5 points favors Patrick Mahomes, though savvy managers know that gap can shrink or widen depending on the weekly slate. Defensive matchup, recent scoring trends, and health status all shift the calculus from one quarterback to the other.

Both are dual-threat quarterbacks. Justin Herbert added 498 rushing yards and Patrick Mahomes chipped in 422, which gives them a higher weekly floor than traditional pocket passers when defenses take away the deep ball. That rushing production is the biggest reason their ceilings look different from drop-back QBs, and it is the stat that typically separates them on tough passing matchups.

Justin Herbert has his bye in Week 7, and Patrick Mahomes rests in Week 5. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Justin Herbert (age 28) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

  • Patrick Mahomes outscored Justin Herbert by a projected 43 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • Justin Herbert played 16 games in 2025 compared to Patrick Mahomes's 14. That durability gap means Justin Herbert contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • Justin Herbert scored 28 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
  • Justin Herbert added 498 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Justin Herbert vs Patrick Mahomes: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
StatJustin HerbertPatrick Mahomes
PPG (Half-PPR)17.920.4
Games Played1614
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)286286
Passing Yards3,7273,587
Passing TDs2622
Pass Yds/Game232.9256.2
Rushing Yards498422
Rushing TDs25
Total TDs2827
TDs/Game1.81.9
Age2830
Experience5 yrs8 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 7Week 5

Summary

20.4 PPG for Patrick Mahomes versus 17.9 for Justin Herbert in 2025. The baseline favors Patrick Mahomes, though the right weekly matchup can flip the script. For a full breakdown that weighs matchup quality, form, and injury reports, try DraftCall's AI comparison engine.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Justin Herbert's 17.9 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?

Justin Herbert averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 16 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 2.5 points per game.

When are Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?

Justin Herbert (LAC) has a bye in Week 7, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 5. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?

Patrick Mahomes outscored Justin Herbert by 2.5 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.