Targets are the single most predictive metric in fantasy football analytics. A target represents an opportunity, and opportunities are the only thing a player can earn on his own — catches depend on accuracy, yards depend on defender positioning, touchdowns depend on game script, but a target is what the offensive coordinator and quarterback decide together before the ball is snapped. Target share is stickier year over year than any other skill-position stat, which makes this leaderboard the most predictive of next year's fantasy production.
The alpha receivers on this leaderboard are commanding 25%-plus of their team's passing targets. That kind of workload is the defining feature of a fantasy WR1 and is almost always held by a small handful of players each season. If your target candidate does not crack the top 20 on this list, he is almost certainly not a true WR1, no matter how efficient his box score looks in a given year.
When cross-referencing this leaderboard with the receiving yards and receptions boards, look for the rare players who lead all three categories simultaneously. Those are the consensus league-winners and usually go in round one of every draft. Players who lead targets but trail on yards are ball-controlled possession receivers whose ceiling caps lower than you would hope. Players who trail targets but lead yards are efficient deep threats whose floor is shakier than their top-line production suggests. The target leaderboard separates the sustainable production from the one-year fluke.
