Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Caleb Williams vs Michael Penix Jr.Who should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Caleb Williams is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 18.7 PPG to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Caleb Williams is the better fantasy play this season.

Caleb Williams is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 18.7 PPG and 4,347 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Michael Penix Jr. (13.4 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Caleb Williams as the starter and Michael Penix Jr. as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBChicago Bears#8PPG LEADER

Caleb Williams

PPG

18.7

Games

Pass Yds

3,942

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

383

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBAtlanta Falcons#29

Michael Penix Jr.

PPG

13.4

Games

Pass Yds

1,982

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 11

The Edge Chart

Caleb Williams

Michael Penix Jr.

Head to Head

18.7 PPG13.4 PPG

17 GP9 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 11

Fantasy Tiers

Caleb Williams: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #8 at the position). Michael Penix Jr.: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #29 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Caleb Williams is producing at 85% of elite pace and Michael Penix Jr. at 61%. That ranking gap means Caleb Williams carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Caleb Williams vs Michael Penix Jr.: The Full Breakdown

Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. are both viable fantasy quarterbacks heading into 2026, but their 2025 production tells two different stories. Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 PPG across 17 games with the Chicago Bears, while Michael Penix Jr. posted 13.4 PPG in 9 appearances for the Atlanta Falcons.

A 5.3-PPG gap gives Caleb Williams the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Caleb Williams threw for 3942 yards and 27 touchdowns, while Michael Penix Jr. posted 1982 yards and 9 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Caleb Williams has his bye in Week 10, and Michael Penix Jr. rests in Week 11. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Caleb Williams at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Michael Penix Jr. is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Caleb Williams (age 24) is in the early stages of his career with 5+ years of starter-caliber upside. His dynasty value is rising. Michael Penix Jr. (age 26) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Caleb Williams outscored Michael Penix Jr. by a projected 90 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Caleb Williams played 17 games in 2025 compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 9. That durability gap means Caleb Williams contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Caleb Williams scored 31 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Caleb Williams added 383 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Caleb Williams vs Michael Penix Jr.: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Caleb Williams	Michael Penix Jr.
PPG (Half-PPR)	18.7	13.4
Games Played	17	9
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	318	121
Passing Yards	3,942	1,982
Passing TDs	27	9
Pass Yds/Game	231.9	220.2
Rushing Yards	383	70
Rushing TDs	3	1
Total TDs	31	10
TDs/Game	1.8	1.1
Age	24	26
Experience	1 yrs	1 yrs
Bye Week	Week 10	Week 11

Summary

Caleb Williams outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 5.3 PPG in 2025 (18.7 to 13.4). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Caleb Williams or Michael Penix Jr. in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Caleb Williams has the edge at 18.7 PPG compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 13.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. average in 2025?▾

Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 17 games in 2025. Michael Penix Jr. averaged 13.4 PPG over 9 games. That is a difference of 5.3 points per game.

When are Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr.'s bye weeks in 2026?▾

Caleb Williams (CHI) has a bye in Week 10, and Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) has a bye in Week 11. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Caleb Williams or Michael Penix Jr. a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Caleb Williams outscored Michael Penix Jr. by 5.3 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.