Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Davis Mills vs Geno SmithWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Geno Smith is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 11.6 PPG to Davis Mills's 11.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Geno Smith is the better fantasy play this season.

This one is genuinely close. Geno Smith edges Davis Mills by 0.2 PPG, but both are in the same production tier. The decision comes down to weekly matchup, not season-long resume. If you are choosing between them in a draft, Geno Smith goes slightly earlier based on volume, but do not reach for the difference.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

Want this verdict updated live on Sunday?

Track Davis Mills and Geno Smith in the DraftCall app and get their updates the moment they change.

Get the App

QBHouston Texans#36

Davis Mills

PPG

11.4

Games

Pass Yds

915

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 8

QBLas Vegas Raiders#34PPG LEADER

Geno Smith

PPG

11.6

Games

Pass Yds

3,025

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

109

Bye

Week 13

The Edge Chart

Davis Mills

Geno Smith

Head to Head

11.4 PPG11.6 PPG

6 GP15 GP

Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 13

Fantasy Tiers

Davis Mills: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #36 at the position). Geno Smith: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #34 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Davis Mills is producing at 52% of elite pace and Geno Smith at 53%. These two are close enough in the rankings that weekly matchup should dictate your start.

Davis Mills vs Geno Smith: The Full Breakdown

Davis Mills (11.4 PPG) and Geno Smith (11.6 PPG) produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2025. When two quarterbacks are this close on a per-game basis, the weekly matchup matters more than the season-long resume. Davis Mills played 6 games for the Houston Texans; Geno Smith suited up 15 times for the Las Vegas Raiders.

A 0.2-point per-game gap over a full season is essentially noise. It means one extra catch, one fewer target, or a single broken play away from flipping the script. For a weekly start/sit call between these two, matchup analysis matters far more than the season line.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Davis Mills threw for 915 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Geno Smith posted 3025 yards and 19 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Davis Mills sits Week 8 while Geno Smith is off Week 13. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Davis Mills (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Geno Smith (age 35) is on the back end of his prime. Strong now, but dynasty value declines year over year.

Did You Know?

•Geno Smith outscored Davis Mills by a projected 3 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Geno Smith played 15 games in 2025 compared to Davis Mills's 6. That durability gap means Geno Smith contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Geno Smith scored 19 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.3 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Davis Mills is 8 years younger than Geno Smith (27 vs 35), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Davis Mills vs Geno Smith: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Davis Mills	Geno Smith
PPG (Half-PPR)	11.4	11.6
Games Played	6	15
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	68	174
Passing Yards	915	3,025
Passing TDs	5	19
Pass Yds/Game	152.5	201.7
Rushing Yards	60	109
Rushing TDs	1	0
Total TDs	6	19
TDs/Game	1.0	1.3
Age	27	35
Experience	4 yrs	12 yrs
Bye Week	Week 8	Week 13

Summary

Geno Smith outscored Davis Mills by 0.2 PPG in 2025 (11.6 to 11.4). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

Website vs App

Get the AI verdict on Davis Mills vs Geno Smith

DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality, recent trends, injury impact, and game script to give you a clear start/sit recommendation.

See everything in the app →

Launch List

Get the live verdict on Davis Mills vs Geno Smith

The DraftCall app delivers live game-day verdicts on every matchup. Join the launch list and we will email you the day it goes live for the 2026 NFL season, with your direct iOS and Android install links.

We will never share your email. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Davis Mills or Geno Smith in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Geno Smith has the edge at 11.6 PPG compared to Davis Mills's 11.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Davis Mills and Geno Smith average in 2025?▾

Davis Mills averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 6 games in 2025. Geno Smith averaged 11.6 PPG over 15 games. That is a difference of 0.2 points per game.

When are Davis Mills and Geno Smith's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Davis Mills (HOU) has a bye in Week 8, and Geno Smith (LV) has a bye in Week 13. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Davis Mills or Geno Smith a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Geno Smith outscored Davis Mills by 0.2 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.