Head to Head

Updated June 3, 2026 from live stats

Davis Mills vs Joe BurrowWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Joe Burrow is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 16.8 PPG to Davis Mills's 11.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Joe Burrow is the better fantasy play this season.

The gap here is significant. Joe Burrow outscored Davis Mills by 5.4 PPG in 2025 with 17 total touchdowns. If both are on your board, Joe Burrow is the clear pick. Davis Mills profiles as a matchup-dependent quarterback who can spike but lacks the consistent floor.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

Want this verdict updated live on Sunday?

Track Davis Mills and Joe Burrow in the DraftCall app and get their updates the moment they change.

Get the App

QBHouston Texans#36

Davis Mills

PPG

11.4

Games

Pass Yds

915

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 8

QBCincinnati Bengals#15PPG LEADER

Joe Burrow

PPG

16.8

Games

Pass Yds

1,809

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 6

The Edge Chart

Davis Mills

Joe Burrow

Head to Head

11.4 PPG16.8 PPG

6 GP8 GP

Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Tiers

Davis Mills: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #36 at the position). Joe Burrow: Tier 3 (Flex/Starter) QB (ranked #15 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Davis Mills is producing at 52% of elite pace and Joe Burrow at 76%. That ranking gap means Joe Burrow carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Davis Mills vs Joe Burrow: The Full Breakdown

Deciding between Davis Mills and Joe Burrow is a common lineup dilemma for fantasy managers. The Houston Texans quarterback put up 11.4 PPG in 2025 over 6 games; Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals averaged 16.8 in 8. A 5.4-point margin that could shift on any given week.

The per-game difference of 5.4 points favors Joe Burrow, though savvy managers know that gap can shrink or widen depending on the weekly slate. Defensive matchup, recent scoring trends, and health status all shift the calculus from one quarterback to the other.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Davis Mills threw for 915 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Joe Burrow posted 1809 yards and 17 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

One scheduling note: Davis Mills is off Week 8 and Joe Burrow Week 6. If these two are on your roster, you will need a fill-in quarterback for both weeks. DraftCall flags bye conflicts so you can plan ahead rather than panic on waivers.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Joe Burrow is a buy in trades where the other manager is chasing upside at a different position. Davis Mills is a hold unless you can flip him for a positional upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Dynasty outlook: Davis Mills (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Joe Burrow (age 29) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Joe Burrow outscored Davis Mills by a projected 92 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Joe Burrow played 8 games in 2025 compared to Davis Mills's 6. That durability gap means Joe Burrow contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Joe Burrow scored 17 total touchdowns in 2025 (2.1 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Davis Mills vs Joe Burrow: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Davis Mills	Joe Burrow
PPG (Half-PPR)	11.4	16.8
Games Played	6	8
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	68	134
Passing Yards	915	1,809
Passing TDs	5	17
Pass Yds/Game	152.5	226.1
Rushing Yards	60	41
Rushing TDs	1	0
Total TDs	6	17
TDs/Game	1.0	2.1
Age	27	29
Experience	4 yrs	5 yrs
Bye Week	Week 8	Week 6

Summary

16.8 PPG for Joe Burrow versus 11.4 for Davis Mills in 2025. The baseline favors Joe Burrow, though the right weekly matchup can flip the script. For a full breakdown that weighs matchup quality, form, and injury reports, try DraftCall's AI comparison engine.

Website vs App

Get the AI verdict on Davis Mills vs Joe Burrow

DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality, recent trends, injury impact, and game script to give you a clear start/sit recommendation.

See everything in the app →

Launch List

Get the live verdict on Davis Mills vs Joe Burrow

The DraftCall app delivers live game-day verdicts on every matchup. Join the launch list and we will email you the day it goes live for the 2026 NFL season, with your direct iOS and Android install links.

We will never share your email. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Davis Mills or Joe Burrow in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Joe Burrow has the edge at 16.8 PPG compared to Davis Mills's 11.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Davis Mills and Joe Burrow average in 2025?▾

Davis Mills averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 6 games in 2025. Joe Burrow averaged 16.8 PPG over 8 games. That is a difference of 5.4 points per game.

When are Davis Mills and Joe Burrow's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Davis Mills (HOU) has a bye in Week 8, and Joe Burrow (CIN) has a bye in Week 6. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Davis Mills or Joe Burrow a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Joe Burrow outscored Davis Mills by 5.4 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.